Senseless war so it seemed from a superficial look and common sense, but in the TPLF domain it was not senseless at all. It was all about politics and survival.  It was a mechanism of feeding fake hubris of "nationalism" to the empire lovers in order to get their support and blind them. At the beginning, things seemed to have worked out right the way it planned for the demonic regime. But it does not appear that the trickery of this TPLF game lasted for long.

TPLF/EPRDF regime’s gain from the war was minimal compared to what its supporters and the jingoists expected. They were expecting to take as much land as TPLF can swallow, at least they were heavily counting on getting the port of Assab. No question the outcome is far less than what they expected, so much so that some have even started to vent their anger in public. TPLF’s failure to secure a trophy to show-off in the long run will be a stumbling block to their expectation of forging a national unity around the achievement of the border conflict. The truth that will come out about human lives loss and wounded and maimed will eat into the psyche of the supporters of the regime.  Eventually it is inevitable that they will compare the achievements with the costs of the war. TPLF will not have gone into this war had its goal merely been only to get the disputed land. And more, it had not been in their list of options to finally agree to settlement the matter through UN sponsored border demarcation.

The number one nightmare of the TPLF was leaving the fate of the disputed lands totally to the decision of arbitrators. What if the arbitrators’ decision gives some of the disputed areas to Eritrea? Definitely, TPLF won’t accept any disputed areas to be given back to Eritrea. Therefore, I suspect that they would not have accepted to arbitrate if they had not received some hint about the outcome of the arbitration. Implicit in their acceptance of the OAU proposal, there is a hint that they will not agree to give up the land. This is what he meant when Meles said, “as far as we are concerned the war is over”. For TPLF the period of forced compromise over disputed border areas is over. They won the war, the disputed areas are under their control, end of story. I believe the powers that brokered this agreement also new this interpretation of the TPLF, and through a backdoor may have given some kind of an assurance to the Ethiopians that arbitration will turn the way the TPLF wanted. They will not disturb the gains of the victor. UN demarcation of the border may turn out to be only about technicality and about the international community formalizing TPLF army’s control of the disputed areas. I think what is going on behind the screen regarding the interpretation of the accord between the signing parties and the power brokers is more important than what is officially stated on the international diplomatic stage. Come on. It’s a way of surviving on power and seeking international support by pretending to respect and adhere to international laws and make a deal in closed doors. Behind-the-scene-deal is not uncommon in international relations, and Abyssinians are very adept at playing such a game. Still, why take the risk and accept the peace agreement? It is a show put on by TPLF proving that they respect international law, and it is a diplomatic ploy meant to lift them from the low diplomatic nadir it is in at the moment.

There is an element of gambling on the part of the TPLF in accepting this accord.  The power brokers can help in choosing the arbitrators and in influencing what rules to apply, and can also put some pressure on some of the arbitrators, but they cannot have total control over the final decision. Therefore, may be the TPLF may be going for a big surprise. Definitely, the TPLF will refuse to honor the decision, but that will put them in direct confrontation with the international community. If they refuse to accept the decision, then per accepted international law norm, and the OAU proposal, international sanctions will be taken against them.  I will not go into the speculation of what type of sanctions will be imposed and what its consequence will be, and more importantly, I will not go into the important question of whether the western powers will honor their words and impose sanctions.

The terms of the accord as it relates to the initial stage are clearly more favorable to Ethiopia. It leaves all the disputed areas under Ethiopia’s army control. UN peacekeeping force buffer zone will be on the Eritrean soil. However, Eritrea’s agreement to the accord seems in part to emanate from Eritrea’s foreseeing the favorable position the accord takes when it comes to the final demarcation of the border. The principles to be used in demarcating the borders seem to favor Eritrea.  In its relevant part in stating the principle to be used, it provides that arbitrators will,  "determine them on the basis of persistent colonial treaties and applicable international law...” Besides the military position, it seems that it is this part that spurred the Eritreans to accept the accord.

Therefore, the paramount question is, whether Ethiopia and Eritrea are ready to take the next step and accept the demarcation results.  The key for the future peace in the border lies not in accepting the peace proposal (cease-fire) but in agreeing with the demarcated border. For now both sides have agreed to respect the UN demarcation results. The practicality of such endorsement will be the lasting settlement to the conflict beyond accepting the cease-fire accord. It’s a very high probability (even possibility) that either side may not accept the demarcation. So it seems the border conflict is far from over. Is the war even about the border conflict? Analysts claim there are several factors that led to the war, mainly economic. UN border demarcation will not fix those problems. Rather, it may worsen them. Nevertheless, the coming challenge to the UN, and international community is how to practically enforce the demarcation on the ground. The central question that the UN peacekeeping force may encounter is this: How will the international community push back the TPLF regime’s army if some of the land under its control will go to Eritrea after demarcation? It’s not an easy time to come. TPLF will not have the easy way out from the final results of the accord (border demarcation by cartographers (arbitration). Refusal will be international confrontation with dire consequences, and accepting (particularly losing war won areas to Eritrea) will be losing its domestic support. Both will work against the regime’s survival. Agreeing with the peace proposal is one thing, and agreeing to its final outcome is another. The situation for a lasting peace will be very cloudy and the final outcome very uncertain. The UN peacekeeping force may be stuck in the buffer zone for years. Border demarcation could take a long time, and effectively enforcing it on the ground even longer even if it may be accepted. The conclusion of the border conflict game is not over, it is only taking a different form, with more international involvement. The cease-fire accord is not the beginning of the end as it’s claimed. Add to it the Horn politicians’ ineptitude and lack of political will for a sustainable peace. They are known eccentrics that simply refuse to do what is rational and acceptable in a common sense and international laws, and may plunge the horn yet again into another round of war.

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